FSS-DSOC Luncheon Seminar #6: “Evidential Vulnerability of Religious Beliefs in the Context of Petitionary Prayers”, by Prof. Ze HONG

This study investigates the evidential vulnerability of religious beliefs in the context of petitionary prayers across diverse religious groups in China, including Muslims, Christians, folk-religionists, and non-believers. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative data and qualitative interviews, we explored how individuals’ beliefs and future actions are influenced by the outcomes of petitionary prayers. Our findings reveal that most participants anticipate an increase in future praying behavior regardless of prior prayer outcomes. Notably, while the success of prayers tends to enhance belief more significantly than failures diminish it, followers of Islam uniquely increase their belief in God even in response to prayer failures. Qualitative insights suggest that this phenomenon may be attributed to theological interpretations within Islam that frame both favorable and unfavorable outcomes as divinely orchestrated tests of faith. We discuss these findings in light of cognitive theories of religion, considering how religious beliefs are maintained or modified despite conflicting empirical evidence.

Kevin (Ze) Hong is a behavioral scientist who studies human behavior and culture from evolutionary and cognitive perspectives. He obtained a bachelor’s degree in Biology from Grinnell College, a master’s degree in Evolutionary Biology from the University of Pennsylvania, and a PhD in Human Evolutionary Biology from Harvard University. He worked as an assistant professor in the Department of Sociology at Zhejiang University and is currently an assistant professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Macau and a research associate in the Department of Human Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University. Research-wise, He uses methodologically diverse approaches (e.g., theoretical modeling, quantitative analysis of historical data, ethnographic fieldwork) to study human behavior and culture from rainmaking to gambling, with special attention paid to information processing at the individual level and information transmission at the population level. His publication appears in diverse journal venues such as Current Anthropology, American Anthropologist, Behavior and Brain Sciences, Human Nature, Human Ecology, Religion, Brain & Behavior, Journal of Theoretical Biology, and Cognitive Science. His current field sites include the Yi in southwest China and the Wa in China-Burma border where he focuses on the psychological and social factors that sustain divination and magic practices.