FSS-DSOC Luncheon Seminar #4: “The Impact of Climate Change on Terrorist Attacks and Fatalities in 123 Coastal Nations”, by Prof. Bo JIANG

This paper explores the link between rising sea surface temperature (SST) and political conflict, focusing on terrorism and political violence in 123 coastal nations. Unlike previous studies that emphasize precipitation or ambient temperature, this research identifies SST as a more reliable indicator of climate change due to its effects on global warming and weather patterns. The study examines how SST exacerbates political grievances, resource scarcity, and economic instability, leading to increased terrorism, especially in vulnerable, agriculturally dependent, and politically unstable countries. Using 30 years of geocoded data on terrorism and political violence, the paper provides models that predict future security threats related to climate change. Our findings reveal that climate change, absolute climate change and global warming are associated with increases in terrorist attacks. Evidence also indicates that compared with all countries, failed states, high agriculturally dependent countries, high precipitation countries and high vulnerability countries will experience greater increases in terrorist attacks with regard to climate change. These findings underscore the heightened vulnerability of agriculturally dependent and politically unstable countries to the effects of climate change on terrorism and civil conflict and offer critical insights for policy recommendations aimed at mitigating the security challenges posed by climate change.

Dr. Bo Jiang is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Sociology at the University of Macau. He specializes in Computational Social Science (CSS) with a research focus on the intersection of artificial intelligence, global security, and climate change. His interdisciplinary work leverages cutting-edge AI methodologies to address global challenges such as climate-induced conflicts, terrorism, and extremism, through a lens of responsible AI development.

Dr. Jiang’s research is funded by prestigious grants, including the University of Maryland’s Grand Challenges Grant, where his ongoing project examines the geopolitical impacts of rising sea temperatures on the security of 109 coastal nations. This work integrates satellite imagery with causal inference methods to assess the relationship between climate change and political instability, contributing to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in the areas of climate action (SDG 13) and peace and justice (SDG 16).

Additionally, Dr. Jiang’s work on extremism utilizes “found data” from social media platforms to develop predictive models that identify and counter online radicalization. His recent projects, such as the analysis of Telegram channels during the Hong Kong protests, employ advanced machine learning techniques to forecast real-world consequences of online harm. These projects aim to build an ethical framework for AI tools used in countering extremism and are pivotal to ensuring AI technologies uphold human rights and societal equity.

Beyond his research, Dr. Jiang is an innovative educator, integrating his research insights into his teaching. He has developed and taught courses on “Big Data Analytics in Social Science,” equipping students with technical and ethical competencies to navigate the complexities of AI applications. His efforts in knowledge transfer extend to law enforcement, where he regularly trains professionals from Macau’s public security agencies on using AI tools ethically in policing and decision-making.

Committed to mentorship, Dr. Jiang supervises doctoral students working on interdisciplinary research projects that explore the application of AI in criminology and legal studies. His guidance has led students to develop data-driven solutions that promote fairness and transparency in AI-driven decision-making systems.

Dr. Jiang has received several accolades for his work, including the Outstanding Academic Staff Award from the University of Macau and the Student Paper Competition First Place Award from the American Society of Criminology’s Division of International Criminology. His research has been featured in prominent media outlets such as The Guardian, Business Insider, and The American Geophysical Union, bringing public attention to the ethical implications of AI in solving global crises.